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如何结束全球新冠疫情?Nature最新:来自112个国家和地区的386名专家达成共识!

疫情百态

2022-11-17   来源 : 梅斯医学

2750 0

自2019年底SARS-CoV-2病毒“引爆”以来,至今竟已有3年光景。转瞬即逝的三年时光中,人们逐渐地习惯了佩戴口罩、检测核酸的生活,也经历过居家封控、线上抢菜的日子,甚至在网课中毕业、参加入职面试以及远程办公......新冠病毒的流行,让全人类都走上了一条截然不同的道路。

Worldometer上的统计数据显示,截至2022年11月11日,全球报告的新冠肺炎病例数超过6.39亿,约占世界人口总数的8%;报告的死亡人数约661万人,但死亡率估计范围高达2000万。当然,背后的真实数字我们无从得知。


全球新冠病毒确诊人数


疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。

11月3日,顶刊Nature上刊登了一项题为A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国Delphi共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!


https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2


毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:

一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;

二是三轮调查和审——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。


https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程


考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:


1、Communication:

有效的信息传递


沟通问题仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。

在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块:对政府的信任虚假信息的后果大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生

为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。

为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。

由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。


https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2、Health Systems:

https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">加强卫生系统的建设


在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系

抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。

为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能落下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。

事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。


https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3、Vaccination:

https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此


众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。

针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。

此外,疫苗犹豫依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。

现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。


https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">4、Prevention:

https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">升级预防系统


正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经经奖励等。

SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播

另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。

对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。


https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">5、Treatment and care:

https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">开发新疗法


很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。

在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。

另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。


https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">6、Inequities:

https://uploader.shimo.im/f/NAZtn2Ezlw9WaddD.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2222\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1344\"|ori-width:\"2222\"],[20,"\n","24:\"eW2b\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"全球新冠病毒确诊人数"],[20,"\n","24:\"cC7j\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"g1Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"疫情爆发的3年,新冠的新变种层出不穷又不断被取代,而第一批疫苗问世也有近2年的时间了,人类从未停下与病毒赛跑的步伐。然而,即使耐力再好的马拉松运动员也有疲惫的时候,让人忍不住发问“新冠疫情到底何时才能结束?”“又该如何结束呢?”。"],[20,"\n","24:\"M8K1\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"mezC\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"11月3日,顶刊"],[20,"Nature","8:1|9:1"],[20,"上刊登了一项题为"],[20,"A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat","9:1"],[20,"的专家共识,来自112个国家和地区的386名不同领域的专家们就“如何结束新冠肺炎疫情危机”进行了深入探讨,最终形成了一套涵盖41项声明和57项建议的跨国"],[20,"Delphi","8:1"],[20,"共识,或为人类的未来指明方向!"],[20,"\n","24:\"AniD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Nx4y\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Tg7foHmZTTzrSluS.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"1518\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"722\"|ori-width:\"1518\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Zuph\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05398-2";,"0:\"rgb(34%2C%2034%2C%2034)\"|1:\"rgb(255%2C%20255%2C%20255)\"|27:\"12\"|31:2"],[20,"\n","24:\"hoCx\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cYIK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"毫不夸张地说,Delphi共识的形成过程是非常严谨的,包括两大部分:"],[20,"\n","24:\"VZYT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"wubL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"一是精挑细选的专家组——采用迭代抽样的方法,形成了一个多样化的大型Delphi小组,最终纳入来自112个国家和地区的386名学术、卫生、非政府组织、政府和新冠肺炎应对专家们,他们来自不同的文化背景,有着不同的看法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"O6iT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"HCpV\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"二是三轮调查和审核——通过多轮数据收集、调查、审核、建议,最终确认了41项声明和57项前瞻性建议,可归类于沟通(Communication)、卫生系统(Health Systems)、疫苗接种(Vaccination)、预防(Prevention)、治疗和护理(Treatment and care)、不平等(Inequities)六大领域。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Whwf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"WyDY\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/Wc51AyXjQcAzBStl.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1598\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"fXNd\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Delphi共识的形成和数据收集过程"],[20,"\n","24:\"F850\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"e0KJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"考虑到Delphi共识的声明和建议较多,这里小编以六大领域分类,将要点归纳如下:"],[20,"\n","24:\"EL1q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Kg9r\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"1、Communication:有效的信息传递","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"FDo8\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUPD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"沟通问题","8:1"],[20,"仍是结束新冠危机的一大关键,风险与机会共存。在讨论新冠流行的因果关系和持续责任时,政策制定者和公共卫生机构都应该谨小慎微。"],[20,"\n","24:\"gq6p\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"NVXa\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在沟通问题中,Delphi小组重点关注了三大块儿:对政府的信任、虚假信息的后果、大量Covid-19相关最新信息的快速产生。"],[20,"\n","24:\"137j\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"iuyp\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为加强公众的信任感,政府应该联合公共卫生当局、医学专家以及已有群众基础的公众人物,采用人群喜欢的沟通方式,进一步赢得群众的信任。"],[20,"\n","24:\"cUDu\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"W4zA\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为了抵制虚假信息的大规模流行,政府应该加强监测,建立揭露虚假信息的网络舆情系统,并要求发布虚假信息的人承担责任、受到处罚。在打假的时候,尽量让大众一眼看懂,提供准确、直接的科普。事实上,政府本身也可能是错误信息的来源,例如最初对传播机制的确定,以及COVID-19大流行已结束时的声明。"],[20,"\n","24:\"Jwj9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"8Cc0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"由于大量的信息涌入,如何让群众在短时间内获得最可靠且易获取的信息,也是专家和政府需要考虑的问题。在科普的过程中,尽量减少专业术语的使用,让新冠相关的信息传递更为精准和直接。从个人层面,也应该从多渠道获取资讯,提高信息的可信度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"DIdi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zF2q\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"2、Health Systems:加强卫生系统的建设","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Wt8d\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"X4hL\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在新冠大流行期间,全球大部分国家的卫生系统都经历了从相对平静到几乎崩溃的境地。然而,Delphi专家组表示,卫生系统所面临的风险是完全可以减轻的——事实上,某些风险是结构性的,比如在全球范围内没有一套基于高级证据的Covid-19大流行病的最低应对标准。因此,强烈建议建立一套适用于全社会和全政府的卫生体系。"],[20,"\n","24:\"yf8n\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"dpGi\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"抵御Covid-19病毒需要全社会的参与,包括多学科、部门和行为主体(如商业组织、民间组织、媒体、心理学家等)的联合。政府应协调各部门联动,恢复卫生系统的承载力和复原力。"],[20,"\n","24:\"E9Ja\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"V3J0\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"为减轻医院的负担,应加强初级卫生保健的作用,包括病毒检测、密接追踪、疫苗接种等。同时,对医务人员的支持和补贴也不能拉下,保证他们的身体及心理健康。此外,卫生系统还应尽可能减少与Covid-19无关的医疗积压,提高医疗卫生的冗余度。"],[20,"\n","24:\"bDIM\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"kgiR\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"事实上,经济层面的影响也同样会给卫生系统带去较大的风险,尤其是消费者因疫情而承担的费用。Delphi专家组建议,应消除新冠检测、个人防护、治疗和护理带来的经济障碍。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KjV9\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"qIq4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"3、Vaccination:重视疫苗接种,但不仅限于此","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"cRRD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YiRE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"众所周知,扩大疫苗接种范围、减少疫苗接种犹豫是十分重要的,但单凭疫苗接种是不足以直接结束全球疫情危机的。因此,开展一些额外的预防措施同样重要。"],[20,"\n","24:\"mT16\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"weie\"],[20,"针对疫苗的重要性,Delphi专家组强调,政府、公益组织、企业及疫苗厂商应加大投资力度,开发针对多种SARS-CoV-2病毒变异株的疫苗开发,以提供持久的保护。"],[20,"\n","24:\"UdIQ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"PDdf\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"此外,疫苗的犹豫不决依然是一个重大挑战。为减少疫苗犹豫、提高接种率,专家们建议:在政府信任度较低的地区,让值得信赖的地方领导人和组织参与到疫苗接种的工作中,应向公众清晰地解释和传达疫苗目前的功效和局限性。"],[20,"\n","24:\"agpe\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Fl1B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"现阶段各国仍有大量对疫苗接种犹豫不决的人,政府需要因地制宜,针对当地文化和拒接人群,采取合适的措施,以提高疫苗的接种率。当然,疫苗接种应遵循自愿原则;但如果对他人造成的风险足够严重时,全体民众的健康权是可以凌驾于自主选择权之上的。"],[20,"\n","24:\"4WVT\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"5XQd\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"4、Prevention:升级预防系统","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"Cpys\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"sUPr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"正如上文所述,仅靠疫苗接种是无法结束新冠危机的。举个例子,当政府停止采取各种社会措施之后(如非药物干预措施),无论疫苗接种水平如何,该国的感染率一定会上升。因此,97%的专家强烈建议应采取一种“疫苗+”的方案,包括预防措施、治疗行动和经奖励等。"],[20,"\n","24:\"qqyx\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"zbv7\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"SARS-CoV-2是一种空气传播的病毒,在通风不良的室内传播风险最高。考虑到这一点,政府应优先考虑和解决新冠病毒在办公室、学校、商场内的传播,并把多种结构性预防措施写入公卫指南,比如增强通风、过滤空气、戴口罩等等,从而减少新冠病毒的空气传播。"],[20,"\n","24:\"HAEo\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Z3Jm\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另一个需要注意的点在于,哺乳动物之间的传播很可能成为未来人畜共患变种病毒的储存库,所以基于人类和高危哺乳动物群体中阳性样本的全基因组测序的病毒学监测不容忽视。"],[20,"\n","24:\"LEod\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"OoX4\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"对国家和国际旅行的限制,应该以最新科学知识和现有变种传播率为基础,不能一棒子打死,而要随机应变、及时调整。"],[20,"\n","24:\"KrDz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"rX3e\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"5、Treatment and care:开发新疗法","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"WwhJ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"27bl\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"很显然,为了结束新冠危机,治疗仍是一个非常重要领域。但至于“治疗更重要”还是“预防更重要”,专家们对此争论不休,并未达成共识。"],[20,"\n","24:\"tKtS\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"2e3h\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在全球范围内新冠变异株层出不穷,引发了一波又一波的疫情,在此基础下,病毒重复感染导致的累积效应是未来的研究重点。此外,有关“长新冠/新冠后遗症”的研究在持续进行中,需要有针对性地开发出诊断、治疗和护理工具。"],[20,"\n","24:\"imyK\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZrr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"另外,全球应统一对新冠肺炎病例的发病率和死亡率的认定标准,让未来的研究更具有统计学意义。"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZSke\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"Q5P4\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"6、Inequities:减少不平等","8:1"],[20,"\n","24:\"ZOFo\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"YJqN\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。"],[20,"\n","24:\"hlr1\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"9DgI\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。"],[20,"\n","24:\"QFAG\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"j6Za\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"--------"],[20,"\n","24:\"NrnO\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"1Azr\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:"],[20,"\n","24:\"kDpY\"|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"o0MD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,{"gallery":"https://uploader.shimo.im/f/qRSn9yKiw7kZh1hb.png!thumbnail"},"29:0|30:0|3:\"2536\"|4:\"auto\"|crop:\"\"|frame:\"none\"|ori-height:\"1558\"|ori-width:\"2536\"],[20,"\n","24:\"IZ2B\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"前十条建议"],[20,"\n","24:\"CpbM\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"VQ2g\"|7:1|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学);"],[20,"\n","24:\"rlUh\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;"],[20,"\n","24:\"waAz\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;"],[20,"\n","24:\"5UJO\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;"],[20,"\n","24:\"rpqD\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;"],[20,"\n","24:\"F3ua\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;"],[20,"\n","24:\"gRsB\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;"],[20,"\n","24:\"zfAg\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;"],[20,"\n","24:\"1VbU\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;"],[20,"\n","24:\"9YaZ\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。"],[20,"\n","24:\"fyj3\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"vCpE\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"因此,"],[20,"\n","24:\"lN5i\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"\n","24:\"id8N\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"],[20,"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2";,"16:\"https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-022-05398-2\"],[20,"\n","24:\"JyIb\"|7:3|direction:\"ltr\"]]" data-copy-origin="https://shimo.im" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 115, 185);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">减少不平等


想要彻底结束新冠肺炎的大流行,解决不平等是个很重要但很难达成的全球性挑战,归根结底是解决社会、健康资源的不平等,尤其要多关注儿童和生活在战争区的两大弱势群体。

世贸组织、WHO等国际组织应协调各国,使中低收入国家的群众有触手可及、质量有保障、负担得起的新冠疫苗,以及检测和治疗方式。



在对全部的建议进行了分析和排序后,Delphi专家组列出了排名前十的事项,如下表:


前十条建议


Top 1:联合全社会、多部门共同防疫(包括但不限于商业、民间社会、工程、信仰团体、数学建模、军事、媒体和心理学)

Top 2:领导、专家、公卫当局应制定公共卫生政策,传递有效疫情信息,加强群众的信任度;

Top 3:所有国家都应该采取“疫苗+”的方案,包括新冠疫苗接种、全面预防措施、治疗和财政奖励;

Top 4:解决社会和健康方面的不平等;

Top 5:公共卫生当局应与社区内值得信赖的个人和组织合作,提供精确、可获得的疫情信息;

Top 6:开发针对多新冠变种的疫苗,提供持久保护;

Top 7:为大众提供精准、科学、直接的信息,并进行打假;

Top 8:政府内部协调各部门,使卫生系统恢复到正常状态;

Top 9:世界贸易组织、WHO与各国协调,让中低收入的国家能够开发出质量有保障、群众负担得起的疫苗、检测和治疗方法;

Top 10:多部门合作,加快新疗法的开发。


世界范围来看,疫情三年让许多政府、个人对疫情放松了警惕,也不再像新冠病毒爆发早期那样关注了,但新冠肺炎仍是一个持续的、危险的健康威胁。因此,Delphi专家组呼吁:各国不应降低警惕,需要付出持续的努力、使用各类资源去拯救生命!现阶段,新冠还未结束,警惕仍然需要。当然,灵活变通地调整策略以应对新冠病毒亦是重中之重。


参考资料:
www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2

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